By  Carlton Joseph

Conditions  in St. Vincent have worsened, as La Soufriere volcano continues to push ash and debris into the atmosphere.  The National Weather Service in the United States has warned pilots that volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and scientists at the University of the West Indies say  that eruptions could continue over days and even weeks.

Volcanologist Professor Richard Robertson has pointed out that the first bang from this volcano is not necessarily its biggest.

Government officials reported that as of Friday morning, close to 20,000 people had been evacuated from the area surrounding the volcano, and no deaths have been reported.

Addressing the nation, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves  said: “I don’t want us to panic, I want this to be disciplined. I want this to be orderly.”  Postings on social media showed Gonsalves talking with reporters and citizens, on the ash laden streets, encouraging them to stay disciplined and resilient.

Unfortunately, as in almost all crises, some people risk their lives and jeopardize the lives of emergency rescue personnel, by clinging to personal belongings. In St. Vincent, dozens of individuals had to be rescued from the northern part of the island after refusing to evacuate last week.  Also, evidence of pyroclastic flows, an avalanche of super-heated gas and debris traveling as fast as more than 120 miles per hour along the mountainside, has prompted officials to demand that anyone still in the red and orange zones to flee as this flow presents a new danger to the area.

Friday’s eruption came on the heels of a recession due to a pandemic-related plunge in tourism.  La Soufriere erupted for the first time in 42 years. Satellite images and photos shared on social media showed a thick column rising from the 4,049-foot volcano, sending a more than two-mile-high cloud of ash billowing above the island.   Erouscilla Joseph, director of the Seismic Research Centre at the University of the West Indies (SRC UWI),  noted  that  “it is possible that there will be some property damage. This could go on for days, weeks or even months.”

I know that we are a resilient people, But can St Vincent overcome the challenges of COVID-19 pandemic plus disruption of tourism and agriculture, its main  industries?  I am reminded of the 1995 Soufriere Hills volcano in Montserrat that erupted and buried half of the island in ash and rock, rendering much of the island uninhabitable.  Let us hope that this eruption in St Vincent is not as destructive. 

Nature seems to be cooperating to ease the disaster.  Prime Minister Gonsalves noted that the island had benefitted from trade winds that appeared to be pushing the worst of the volcanic ash toward the ocean.  Also, scientists said that the ash column has started to fall back  around the volcano, indicating that there isn’t enough force  for it to continue upwards. Hopefully, the pyroclastic flows would hit the coast quickly,  enter the ocean and run out of energy.

Ships from Royal Caribbean and Carnival cruise lines arrived at port on Friday to evacuate Vincentians off the island, and several neighboring island nations, including Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Grenada, and St. Lucia, have offered to welcome evacuees.   Gonsalves has mandated that to board the ships or to enter island host nations, evacuees must be vaccinated.  And he also recommended that those who arrive in shelters on St. Vincent be vaccinated.

At the time of the volcanic eruption approximately 12,100 of the nation’s 110,000 residents had been vaccinated.  In February, St. Vincent and the Grenadines received 40,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine from India. And earlier this week, the country received additional doses of vaccine through COVAX, an initiative backed by the World Health Organization to distribute doses equitably across the globe.  Hopefully, COVAX delivers the additional vaccine doses to protect the entire population.

Earlier this week, Gonsalves said that some 2,000 people had been relocated to 20 active shelters and that more space was being made inside hotels and inns both within the country and in surrounding island nations.  Reports indicate that he fought back tears when he spoke of the assistance of nearby nations and cruise lines that were mobilizing to aid evacuees.  “It brings home that we are one Caribbean family,” he said.

La Soufriere  fired an enormous amount of ash and hot gas early Monday in the biggest explosive eruption yet since volcanic activity began.  The flows were destroying everything in its path and that people needed to evacuate immediately, and that the latest explosion was compared to the one that occurred in 1902 killing some 1,600.   Professor Robertson told a local station that the volcano’s old and new dome have been destroyed and that a new crater has been created.

The ongoing volcanic activity has threatened water and food supplies, with the government forced to drill for fresh water and distribute it via trucks.  One source report that Minister of Water and Sewer, Garth Saunders referring to the problem of trying to protect the current water supply remarked: “We cannot put tarpaulin over a river.” And one road supervisor who had experienced the 1979 eruption, remarked that it was not an experience that she wanted to relive.

Deputy PM, Montgomery Daniel, after touring the island’s northeast region, told the radio station that the damage was extensive in the northeast region.  Forests and farms were wiped out, with coconut, breadfruit, mango and soursop trees destroyed, as well as plantain and banana crops.   SRC UWI, Robertson is predicting that things will likely get worse before they get better, since instruments monitoring the eruption have shown no sign of activity dying down.

Gonsalves also expressed that his administration might call off the cruise ships since the vast majority of people seem to be staying in St. Vincent.  He told  a local radio station on Sunday that his government will do everything possible to help those forced to abandon their homes in ash-filled communities.  “It’s a huge operation that is facing us,” he said. “It’s going to be costly, but I don’t want us to penny pinch…this is going to be a long haul.”

So far, Gonsalves has handled the crisis admirably and the people seem to have heeded his call for calm.  He has shown confidence and has reassured his people saying: “We will come through this stronger than ever.  Rebuilding, would be an awesome challenge.”  He said it could take four months for life to get back to normal in St. Vincent. 

Caribbean peoples in the diaspora must now be prepared to financially assist St Vincent in its rebuilding efforts.  I think Gonsalves is optimistic when he says that things will be normal in four months, I hope he is right. 

(Trinidad-born Carlton Joseph who lives in Washington DC, is a close obsever of political developments in the United States.)