By Carlton Joseph

Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its fourth week, shows no signs of abating. The invasion has wreaked devastation, exacting a heavy toll on the country’s infrastructure and population.  Unofficial reports indicate more than 10 million Ukrainians, or roughly 25% of the population have either been displaced inside their country or have fled as refugees to other countries.  Officially, the United Nations (UN) says nearly 3.4 million people have fled Ukraine.

These numbers are staggering, especially when one takes into account that Ukraine’s population is 43 million; at the current rate the country could lose its population in 10 months. 

Currently, there are 82 million people forcibly displaced world-wide. At the end of 2019, among the displaced were 26 million refugees, half are under the age of 18. There are also millions of stateless people, who have been denied a nationality and access to basic rights such as education, healthcare, employment and freedom of movement. 

The UN agency that helps refugees is the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). It came into being in the wake of World War II to help Europeans displaced by that conflict. Its mandate was supposed to end after two years.  But conflicts beginning with the decolonization of Africa in the sixties, wars in Asia and Latin America for over two decades, war in the Balkans, and war in the Middle East have made its services crucial in providing some essential services to displaced peoples.

More terrifying is that UNHCR has reported that there is diminishing prospects for refugees when it comes to hopes of any quick end to their plight.  In the 1990s, on average 1.5 million refugees were able to return home each year; over the past decade that number has fallen to around 385,000, meaning that growth in displacement is far outstripping solutions.

A brief history of events that have contributed to the refugee problem is critical to our understanding of the crisis.  The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was mandated by the UN General Assembly in 1949 to provide services to registered Palestine refugees in the Middle East.  The UN General Assembly tasked UNRWA to provide assistance and protection to Palestine refugees until a just and lasting political solution is found that addresses their plight.  No solution has been offered and currently there are 5.2 million Palestinians refugees.

In 1956, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Hungary demanding a more democratic political system and freedom from the Soviet Union.  Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest and crushed the uprising resulting in estimated 2,500 Hungarian deaths and over 200,000 refugees.

The US in dealing with its southern neighbors, often away from public scrutiny, and motivated by big business, economic interest and ideology, and the alleged spread of communism has supported military coups, forced regime change, and intervened militarily in Latin America to dominate the region. This added greatly to the refugee problem.  More recently, 9 million Venezuelans are refugees as a result of attempted regime change by the US.

In 2014, the Houthis called for mass protest over a government implemented removal of fuel subsidies. The lifting of subsidies came after pressure from the IMF which conditioned its continued financial assistance on these reforms.  The protests led to the Houthi takeover of the Yemen government.  A coalition of nine Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia launched military operations with the goal of restoring the Yemeni government. It was done with major US support, who provided billions of dollars in munitions to the Arab coalition.  

The Saudi war-makers anticipated a quick overthrow of the Houthis. They believed the Houthis would be no match for the combined military strength of the Saudi Arabia coalition with the backing of the United States and the United Kingdom.  Seven years later, the war continues even though the Houthis do not have fighter jets or warships.

The result of this continuing war is that an entire generation of Yemeni children has suffered the traumas of war, many of them orphaned, maimed, malnourished, or displaced. The UN reports 3.65 million people have been internally displaced and attacks on hospitals and clinics have led to closure of more than half of Yemen’s prewar facilities. IMF strictures further contributed to the destruction of human lives.

Review of civil unrest as a result of IMF conditionalities is instructive.  Civil war seems to occur whenever the IMF tries to force countries to privatize their natural resources.  If the leaders of the countries refuse, the US implements regime change; when the leaders implement the conditionalities, there is corruption of the officials, civil unrest, and increase in poverty. War and then the resulting refugee problem often follow. 

IMF conditionalities followed by US intervention is omnipresent.  In 2019, the US backed a coup which overthrew the democratically elected government of Bolivia and the exile of its President, Evo Morales. Why? Because he decided to build a socialist economy.  Guatemala’s government led by Jacobo Arbenz, was overthrown because he proposed to redistribute undeveloped lands held by large property owners to landless farmers; at that time two percent of landowners owned 70 percent of the land. 

In Ukraine, the IMF planned to open Ukraine markets by implementing a series of economic reforms to make the country more attractive to investors and give control of its economy to giant multinational corporations. These included lowering wages, reforming and reducing health and education sectors. This resulted in massive unemployment. Natural gas subsidies to Ukrainian citizens were cut making energy affordable to the general public.

Ukraine President Yanukovych terminated negotiations with the IMF and initiated talks with Russia.  A US backed coup then overthrew the Ukrainian President, and the new Kiev government turned to the European Union and obtained a loan commitment of $27 billion from the IMF.  Today, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed millions of people out of their homes and across borders to escape violence.   

Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States unveiled a series of economic sanctions against Russia targeting banks, oil refineries, and military exports.  The resultant increase in energy costs and food shortages have wreaked havoc across the world. Poorer countries are the worst affected.   

Providing weapons for war only increases the number of refugees and allows for the continued destruction of a country’s economy.  Can the world afford to lose the brain power, and the technical skills of these millions of refugees?  Are we content to have democratically elected governments overthrown because we disagree with their political choices? Are we willing to allow the will of corporations to supersede the will of the people? Must we invade them?

It’s clear that solutions must be sought in the political realm. But given the mentality of the politicians that lead us, the IMF and bombs still seem to be their preferred instrument to settle political differences. And the lines of refugees will grow longer.

(Trinidad-born Carlton Joseph who lives in Washington DC, is a close observer of political developments in the United States.)